A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
